Okay so we had our 12 hours to celebrate after last night but what happened last night and what’s next?
Huckabee and Obama won. they both symbolize change for their repective parties. You could argue that Change won last night. Both of them are trying to change America for the better. A showdown between the two would be qite interesting and one that might be close.
I realize that historically Iowa is not the best indicator of who the nominees will be from both parties. So the results last night do indeed need to be taken with a grain of salt. However with so little time between Iowa and Super Duper Tuesday that also needs to be taken into account here. After Feb. 5th we will be able to gauge on what factors led to the eventual nominations.
Now that Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama have taken the 1st round what’s next? There is a GOP Caucus on Saturday night in Wyoming. According to this news article there is no telling who will win. However the big show is New Hampshire. All the candidates are already there. So what happens?
On the Democrat side it appears to be either a win for Obama or Clinton. Edwards (who finished 2nd) needs a win or he can forget winning the nomination (I do think Obama will tap him for VP if he wins the nomination). Out of Obama/Clinton I think the New York Senator needs to win much more or she will have to hedge her bets with Super Tuesday and hold on for dear life. If Obama wins he might be in good shape.
As for the GOP, John McCain appears to have a good position. Mitt Romney’s 2nd last night is an absolute disaster. He has no momentum going into a state in which he now trails McCain in several polls. Romney does have more money and organization (but see what that did last night) and he was governor in MA which is just south of New Hampshire. The wrench in all this is that Obama won Iowa last night. The large number of indies in The Granite State are likely now to vote in the Democratic primary (in which their votes will have more weight). This would make the NH GOP primary lean to the right. That is bad news for Rudy who might do poorly. It gives Mitt a little hope and Huckabee a chance. Will the indies stick around for McCain though? We shall see.
Another big key is that there are two debates this weekend in New Hampshire for the GOP. Mike Huckabee is the king in these events. If Mike does well he may in fact surprise some people next Tuesday. I predict a 3rd place finish behind McCain and Romney. We shall see.