Mitt Romney Wins Nevada (projected)

Before any of the votes were counted the news agencies projected Mitt Romney has won the GOP Caucuses in Nevada. there are a few votes counted and so far we have the following results:

Mitt Romney – 51%
Mike Huckabee – 12%
John McCain – 12%
Ron Paul – 11%
Fred Thompson – 9%
Rudy Giuliani – 3%
Duncan Hunter – 2%

.3% precincts reporting

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TODAY IS THE DAY!!

I know I have said this many times but it must be said again. We have reached the morning of the most important day of the Mike Huckabee campaign thus far. Today the people of South Carolina head out to the polls to have their say in who should be the GOP’s nominee for President of the United States. The campaigning is over it is now time for the votes to be cast. If you live in South Carolina or know people who do it is of the utmost importance that they go to the polls today. EVERY VOTE IS IMPORTANT AND EVERY VOTE COUNTS!! The polls have really tightened and it is a dead heat between Huck and McCain. They have run a clean campaign with each other and that is quite refreshing in this day in age. But sorry McCain it’s not your time! Why is South Carolina so important? Well at least since 1980 no GOP nominee has gone without winning the South Carolina primary. Thus the saying is “As South Carolina goes so goes the country.” I know the weather is rough but please do get on out to the polls and cast your vote for the next President of the United States, Governor Mike Huckabee!

Also on tap for today is the Caucuses in Nevada on both sides. The bigger show over there is the Democratic contest. I have a feeling that Romney will win on the GOP side since he has the momentum from Michigan but that is the only reason I can think of. Who knows what they will do.

Stay tuned for updates throughout the day and night here on the blog!

WHEN NEWS BREAKS OUT….I WILL BREAK IN!!

Current State of The Race Before Michigan

Even now with three-four weeks before Super Tuesday things are still quite fluid. Right now it appears that it is a three horse race in the GOP. All three (Huck, McCain, Romney) have won a state thus far. So what’s next? Michigan votes on Tuesday. Any of these three candidates can win. Who needs the win more? It’s very hard to say at this point. Romney needs a win in the worst way and this is his best shot to get one since he was born in MI and his father was governor years ago. John McCain has the momentum but it is very fresh. McCain only started gaining steam around Christmas but after NH his Mo can be seen nationally and in state polling as well. A win for him would cement the momentum going into South Carolina (where his best chance of winning something was before his surge) and Nevada. A 2nd (or especially 3rd) might bring his surge to a halt. Mike Huckabee has had relatively slowly building momentum for two-three months now and a win might seal the deal, especially since a win in Michigan would be a surprise to everyone considering the polls have Mike at 3rd presently. South Carolina is next and Mike Huckabee is very strong in the Palmetto State. Following a win in Michigan the former Governor might be unstoppable (the dominoes would start falling towards Feb 5th).

What about Nevada? Since the Democratic contest is more key over there and that the pollsters are gun shy after Obama’s surprise defeat there will be almost no polling at all of Nevada. The winner might be the one with the most momentum following Michigan. the only idea you can get on Nevada is the AOL straw poll which Mike Huckabee leads in considerably. It’s a caucus so who knows what will happen.

Mitt Romney needs a win in Michigan to stay alive. Mike Huckabee, and to a slightly lesser extent, John McCain might seal the deal with a win in Michigan.

POLLS – Where does GOP Stand in MI, NV, SC, & FL

Okay so now that we have New Hampshire out of the way it is time to look forward at where we stand in the next four contests

First up is Michigan. There have been no new polls here in the past three weeks-a month. So let’s use the RCP average:

Romney – 19.8%
Huckabee – 18.8%
McCain – 13.0%
Guliani – 12.5%

EDIT – New poll just released by Rossman out of Michigan HUCK LEADS!!

Huckabee – 23%
Romney – 22%
McCain – 18%

As New Hampshire had the Independents Michigan has the Dems. Only Hillary is on the ballot and there is a movement by Obama supporters to cross over and vote for Huckabee. Very interesting!

In Nevada no new polls have come out in a month So we will also use the RCP average:

Guiliani – 23.7%
Romney – 23.7%
Huckabee 15.3%

By the time the last polls were taken Huckaboom was beginning and his rise was dramatic. The very low polling from before November hurts his average. I expect to see higher numbers from Huck and McCain as well with new poll numbers.

Things are even more rosy for Huck in The Palmetto State. Three recent polls have come out in the last few days and Huck enjoys a big lead in the RCP average!

Huckabee – 32.3%
McCain – 19.7%
Romney – 16.0%

Florida is quite key and will be shaped by the three states voting before it does on the 29th of January. Florida is supposedly Rudy’s stronghold but his numbers in Florida and nationally are taking a nosedive. Will he be able to right the ship and win? If not he’s toast! Things are closer than before in the RCP average:

Guiliani – 26.5%
Huckabee – 21.3%
Romney – 16.5%
McCain – 14.3%

There are some recent polls that are not included in the average that show Huck leading and Rudy tanking. Apparently RCP doesn’t trust them. Florida is unknown at this point. It is likely that there will be candidates out of the race by this point (Thompson…maybe Romney too). We’ll just have to wait and see.

New hampshire Fallout

Wow! New Hampshire was fun wasn’t it? NH has changed everything and the crystal ball looks muddy at this point. Even minutes before the returns came in last night we were betting the farm on an Obama blowout of Clinton. that did not happen. Of course we did expect a McCain victory and that did happen. With 96% of Precincts reporting here’s the numbers:

GOP:
McCain – 37%
Romney – 32%
Huckabee – 11%
Guiliani – 9%
Paul – 8%
Thompson – 1%

Dems:

Clinton – 39%
Obama – 37%
Edwards – 17%
Richardson – 5%
Kucinich – 1%

So what does it all mean? Well the Clinton surprise changes everything in the Democratic race. Before last night it was all but certain that Obama would sweep to the nomination. Not so fast my friend! We now have a Battle Royale on our hands. The win last night has revived Clinton’s campaign and given it brand new life. It has also kept John Edwards around for South Carolina (which he won in 2004). Between New Hampshire and South Carolina is Michigan (who will vote for Clinton even though they’ve lost all their delegates), and Nevada (where Clinton has a big lead right now). If Edwards wins South Carolina again (not likely but possible) we might see a brokered convention in late August.

Now to the GOP. Huckabee won Iowa. Romney won Wyoming. McCain won New Hampshire. More importantly Mitt Romney lost both Iowa and New Hampshire where he was leading big two-three months ago. Romney is down to his last out. That last out is Michigan (where he was born and his father was Governor). It’s going to be a three-man race between McCain, Romney, and Huckabee. I am very anxious to see some new polls from Michigan. Nevada is anyone’s guess at this point. South Carolina looks like Huckabee’s to lose. Florida, Rudy’s last stand is showing signs of the Huckaboom. It’s looking rather good for Huckabee right now but things could change and we must keep working hard.

It is distinctively possible at this point that one or both parties could have brokered conventions. Incredible

Friday Huckabee Roundup

Good afternoon.

It’s time for the latest Mike Huckabee Roundup!

Yesterday was an awesome day for the campaign. It was “Mobilize for Mike” Day. The goal was for supporters to e-mail 100,000 new voters about Mike through the campaign website. Things were slow going most of the day. By dinner time last night the numbers of E-mails sent wasn’t even halfway there. But then suddenly as everyone came home from work that number shot up like a skyrocket on the 4th of July! the goal was eventually reached in the 11 PM hour last night. Great work everyone!

Here are some of the latest poll numbers: Rasmussen’s Daily Tracker has Mike increasing his national lead on Guiliani. The latest AP national poll has Mike as a strong 2md to Rudy. A 2nd South Carolina poll shows Huck in the lead. Huck has shot up from nowhere to 2nd in an ARG poll of Nevada!

Newt Gingrich says “Mike Can Win!”

We need you help to crank up the Huckabus. Pledge a $100 donation on December 12th today!

Great news from Georgia For Huckabee! the following was a press release they issued yesterday. I am very pleased to see everything coming together. Way to go to my friends Shelby and Don for stepping up to the plate!

NEWS . . . FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact: Shawn Davis, Georgia Communications Director
404-202-2599 (media only)
news@georgiaforhuckabee.com

Mike Huckabee Leadership Team
Forming in Georgia

Past Presidential Electors, Lawmakers
and GOP Activists Top List

National Poll Places Him First in Crowded Field,
First in South Carolina

(ATLANTA, December 6, 2007) — With a national poll showing Governor Mike Huckabee as the new leader in the race for the Republican nomination for President and many Georgia Republicans still seeking a viable conservative candidate, a leadership team is forming to put the Peach State in his win column on Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008. Congressional districts are being organized and key business leaders and lawmakers are on the Governor’s campaign in Georgia.

Among the key supporters from the business community are Ron Terwilliger and Virgil Williams. Terwilliger, Chairman and CEO of Trammel Crow Residential, is active in civic circles in Atlanta and is the new owner of a yet to be named Atlanta WNBA (Women’s National basketball Franchise) franchise. Williams is a Gwinnett entrepreneur who served on the National Finance Committee for George W. Bush’s Presidential Campaign and was later named a Presidential Elector in the 2000 and 2004 Electoral Colleges. He chaired the campaigns of former Governor and U.S. Senator Zell Miller.

“Governor Mike Huckabee appeals to me because he is authentic and believes what he says,” said Williams of his endorsement. “It takes a bold thinker to push big ideas, such as the fair tax. From an electability standpoint, the American people are identifying with him not only because he is warm and charming, they see him as a unifying force,” said Williams.

Georgia Public Service Commissioner Stan Wise, a Presidential Elector for Bob Dole in 1996 and a surrogate speaker for the late U.S. Senator Paul Coverdell, is backing Governor Huckabee because he is a genuine conservative who can connect with the average Georgian.

“I don’t choose a candidate simply because he or she might have the rank and file behind them,” said Wise. “I want to be inspired. In Governor Huckabee I see a leader who is comfortable in his skin and holds steadfast to his convictions, which has resonated with voters. He will continue to surge as Americans realize he is the social conservative who can fill the current void among the field,” said Wise.

Serving on Huckabee’s Executive Committee from the General Assembly are State Representatives Ed Setzler (Executive Committee Director), Charlice Byrd (R-Woodstock), Melvin Everson (R-Snellville) Harry Geisinger (R-Roswell), Mike Keown (R-Coolidge), Martin Scott (R-Rossville), Tommy Smith (R-Nicholls), Len Walker (R-Loganville), and State Senator Judson Hill (R-Marietta). See full list in progress …

The state organization will include co-directors Joe Dendy and Sam Teasley, both of Cobb County. Dendy has served in various local and state campaigns, including manager of former State Representative Roger Hines’ Congressional bid. Teasley has worked in various positions in congressional and General Assembly campaigns.

Craig Dowdy, of the law firm of McKenna, Long and Aldridge, will serve as Finance Director. Dowdy served as Cobb County Co-Chairman and member of the Georgia Steering Committee and Finance Committee for the 2000 George W. Bush for President Campaign; including the 2000 Bush Recount Team in West Palm Beach, Florida. He was Chairman, Counsel, and Treasurer for Congressman Bob Barr’s campaign committees.

Shawn Davis, a public affairs executive with Joe Tanner & Associates, will serve as Communications Director. Davis is a former press secretary for the Public Service Commission and co-chaired Governor Sonny Perdue’s reelection campaign in Cobb County.

Dave McCleary, a GOP activist in Fulton County, will coordinate the Congressional District outreach efforts.

Serving as Congressional District Directors are:
District 1: Pat Tippet and Kay Godwin
District 2: Brad Hughes
District 3: Shelby Barker
District 5: Jim Voyles
District 6: Lori Hullett
District 7: John McGee
District 8: Steve Dillard
District 9: Jane Teasley
District 11: Nancy Hollingshed
District 12: Susie Davis
District 13: Wayne Bray

The organization is building its coalition groups as well. Leading faith based groups will be U.D. Roberts, President and CEO of Brentwood Christian Press of Columbus. African-American outreach will be led by Catherine Davis of Stone Mountain. Supporters of the Fair Tax will be led into the Huckabee campaign by co-directors Gene Key of Fayetteville and Don Williamson of Conyers. The campaign will organize down to the county level.

Momentum for the Huckabee campaign has been building since his strong performance in the recent debates and a weekend surge in the nationwide polls. Rasmussen Reports now has Huckabee in first place for the second day straight. According to today’s tracking, Huckabee has earned the support of 21% of the likely Republican Primary voters; three points over Rudy Giuliani. In polls taken in South Carolina over December 3rd and 4th, Huckabee has also taken the lead in South Carolina for the first time in the race with 25% of the vote over Romney and Thompson, both of whom are holding at 18%.

The Huckabee surge may be stronger in Georgia than the national polls indicate. In a straw poll of Republican leaders in the 10th Congressional District, Governor Mike Huckabee emerged the clear winner with 50% of the vote. Approximately 60 Republican Party officials and public officials were in attendance at the November 30 Leadership Conference, which included U.S. Senator Saxby Chambliss, U.S. Congressman Dr. Paul Broun, State Representatives Barbara Sims, Barry Fleming (Majority Whip), Ben Bridges, Tommy Benton, and State Senators Ralph Hudgens and Nancy Schaefer. State GOP Chairwoman Sue Everhart and twenty GOP County Chairmen were present. According to the 10th District Chairman Dave Barbee, the results of the straw poll were as follows: Huckabee, 50%; Giuliani, 21%; Thompson, 15%; Romney, 9%; McCain, 2.5%; Paul, 2.5%; Hunter, 0; Tancredo, 0.

As the organization builds, updates can be found on the Georgia for Huckabee campaign website http://www.georgiaforhuckabee.com (not an official website of Huckabee for President, Inc.).


That’s about all the time I have for the moment. I’ll catch Y’all tomorrow with another roundup of Mike Huckabee news!

Pass the popcorn – This is getting good!

Back when i started this blog in the summer if you told me the race to the nomination in both parties was going to be this fluid I would have said “You are crazy-go-nuts!” However this is exactly what is happening. We are dealing with the longest and most unprecedented Presidential election cycle in history. We are now starting to see the effects of that in December. We are nearing the one-year point for the process and the American people are growing weary of the frontrunners and maybe the process itself. Both America’s Mayor, Rudy Guiliani and New York Senator Hillary Clinton, who have been leading their respective packs for what seems like years are free-falling back to Earth in the polls. I don’t know which fall is more surprising.

On the Democrat side of things Hillary has been the perceived and assumed nominee from almost the beginning (perhaps since Thanksgiving of 2004 if not 2006). Illinois Senator Barack Obama became “The Rock Star” when he announced his run but fell back. With his new endorsement of Oprah he is gainging steam and momentum. Also smelling blood now is North Carlina Senator John Edwards. Iowa’s Caucus process makes this very interesting. A candidate must receive 15% of the vote in each precinct. Supporters of those candidates that don’t garner the required support choose between the candidates that do (actually they get a chance to do so). Bad news for Clinton is that the 2nd choice of the 2nd tier supporters is John Edwards. It’s not of the realm of possibility that Senator Clinton could come out of Iowa with a 3rd place finish! The shockwaves that would send around the country might cause an entire city’s buildings to implode or spontaneously combust! if Hillary holds on in Iowa she wins. If not then it is anyone’s game (my guess would be Obama)!

On the GOP side Iowa seems a little less important but that will be entirely known after the process is finished. After leading the pack for months Rudy Guiliani is also fading and falling back to Earth. In Iowa where America’s Mayor really isn’t playing there is a new leader in former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. Bad news for Rudy is that he now trails Mike nationally. The strategy Rudy placed for his campaign is showing chinks. Rudy’s strategy is to hold on for dear life until Florida on January 29th which he is strongly supported (but Huck now is in 2nd behind him there all of a sudden). It’s becoming more and more likely that Guiliani needs New Hampshire which is Mitt Romney territory (John McCain must do well there of he is finished). At this point it looks like Huckabee vs Romney in Iowa. In New Hampshire Romney vs Guiliani/McCain/Huckabee (he is gaining here too). Rudy will probably win Nevada (which is small potatoes at this point). Wyoming’s caucus is anyone’s guess (I haven’t seen any polling from there…they are wild enough to give Ron Paul a win which wouldn’t surprise me at all). Mitt and Rudy are strong in Michigan (but Huck may be gaining there too we’ll see what the next poll spits out). The tide is turning in South Carolina for Mike Huckabee and may be actor Fred Thompson & Senator John McCain’s last stand. What happens in January will have a drastic effect on Super Tuesday (February 5th) which for all intensive purposes will determine the nomination.

Regardless this is going to fun to watch. We are a month before the fireworks start. Get ready and buckle your seatbelts!