POLLS – Huck leads GA, OK, MO, TN, & Tied With McCain in AL

with Super Tuesday looming right after Florida Mike Huckabee sees a key to success in the many Southern States that have their primaries that day. So how do we stand?

Georgia (Rasmussen):

Mike Huckabee – 34%
John McCain – 19%
Mitt Romney – 16%
Ron Paul – 12%
Rudy Giuliani – 11%

(Note the importance of this trend. The panhandle and the Northern part of Florida are said to be more politically aligned with Georgia. If this kind of margin can be met (or even larger) in those areas on Tuesday night we might have a great shot at a good showing in Florida which would strengthen our position elsewhere in the South)

Alabama (Rasmussen):

Mike Huckabee – 27%
John McCain – 27%
Mitt Romney – 15%
Rudy Giuliani – 8%
Ron Paul – 3%

Oklahoma:

Mike Huckabee – 30%
John McCain – 25%
Mitt Romney – 13%

Missouri (Rasmussen):

Mike Huckabee – 27%
John McCain – 26%
Mitt Romney – 18%
Rudy Giuliani – 7%
Ron Paul – 5%

Tennessee (Taken before Fred Dropped Out):

Fred Thompson – 25%
Mike Huckabee – 24%
John McCain – 12%
Mitt Romney – 7%
Rudy Giuliani/Ron Paul – 2%

Also voting on Super Tuesday in the south is Arkansas and West Virginia (convention where Mike will speak). Those are 7 states that Mike really needs to win and that we should focus on. There are a ton of delegates at stake in these. Also following that is Louisiana on Feb. 9th. In what may be a three-man race by that point sweeping the South will be important and would leave Mike in very good shape for Texas on March 4th which might be for all the marbles.

The Tide Is Turning In South Carolina!!

For the past week or so almost every poll has shown John McCain with a lead over Mike Huckabee and the rest of the field in South Carolina. This was of course after his showing in New Hampshire. The polls that have been released after Michigan (but with polls done before that point) also have shown Senator McCain leading in South Carolina. We now have the first poll taken in South Carolina after Michigan and we have a dead heat!

Rasmussen SC GOP Primary:

John McCain – 24% (-4)
Mike Huckabee – 24% (+5)
Mitt Romney – 18% (+1)
Fred Thompson – 16%
Ron Paul – 5%
Rudy Giuliani – 3% (-2)

There are also two other major developments in the state today. Mitt Romney (despite his win in Michigan) has pulled out, according to National Review Online. He is headed out to Nevada and then to Florida on Saturday night. The other major development is the Huckabee endorsement by SC’s Lt. Governor Bauer. This is huge! He is popular in SC, especially with the older folks. That might eat into McCain’s support. There’s a new poll from MSNBC/McClatchy this afternoon in about an hour. Let’s see where we stand there too.

Mike Huckabee Back On Top In Daily GOP Tracking Poll!

My oh my this has been a topsy-turvey cycle. For a little while Mike Huckabee had run at the top of the field according to the Rasmussen Daily GOP Tracking Poll. After he had displaced Rudy, there was a dead-heat after the New Year. After McCain won New Hampshire he soared to the top. As Michigan approached McCain fell back down and now after Michigan Mike Huckabee has reassumed the top spot.

Today’s tracking poll finds Mike Huckabee at 23%, John McCain at 20% Michigan winner, Mitt Romney is at 18% (and climbing), Fred Thompson sits at 12%, and Rudy is down at 11%.

I expect to see some changes in this tracking poll between now and South Carolina on Saturday. McCain’s momentum is now halted, and Romney is getting his Michigan bump. Let’s see if it continues tomorrow. What is very clear is that Huckabee’s support is more stead and strong. while everyone goes up and down the merry-go-round based on momentum.

Fasten your seat belts gang. We’ve still got a long ways to go!

NEW POLLS – Huck leads in Alabama & Georgia!!

New polls are out in Alabama and Georgia today and Mike Huckabee leads both of them!

Alabama GOP (Capitol Survey Research):

Mike Huckabee – 32%
John McCain – 25%
Fred Thompson – 10%

Georgia GOP (Mason Dixon):

Mike Huckabee – 31%
John McCain – 18%
Mitt Romney – 14%

If This Califonria Poll Is Accurate, Rudy Is Toast!

Go over HERE to check out the latest California Poll. Remember this is one of the states Rudy is counting on on February 5th to give him a ton of delegates. Keep in mind it is a private poll and may not be accurate. If Rudy has fallen that low in California than he is toast and has no shot at the nomination.

Oh who leads? John McCain leads with 18% and Huck is not far behind, with 15%

POLLS – Where does GOP Stand in MI, NV, SC, & FL

Okay so now that we have New Hampshire out of the way it is time to look forward at where we stand in the next four contests

First up is Michigan. There have been no new polls here in the past three weeks-a month. So let’s use the RCP average:

Romney – 19.8%
Huckabee – 18.8%
McCain – 13.0%
Guliani – 12.5%

EDIT – New poll just released by Rossman out of Michigan HUCK LEADS!!

Huckabee – 23%
Romney – 22%
McCain – 18%

As New Hampshire had the Independents Michigan has the Dems. Only Hillary is on the ballot and there is a movement by Obama supporters to cross over and vote for Huckabee. Very interesting!

In Nevada no new polls have come out in a month So we will also use the RCP average:

Guiliani – 23.7%
Romney – 23.7%
Huckabee 15.3%

By the time the last polls were taken Huckaboom was beginning and his rise was dramatic. The very low polling from before November hurts his average. I expect to see higher numbers from Huck and McCain as well with new poll numbers.

Things are even more rosy for Huck in The Palmetto State. Three recent polls have come out in the last few days and Huck enjoys a big lead in the RCP average!

Huckabee – 32.3%
McCain – 19.7%
Romney – 16.0%

Florida is quite key and will be shaped by the three states voting before it does on the 29th of January. Florida is supposedly Rudy’s stronghold but his numbers in Florida and nationally are taking a nosedive. Will he be able to right the ship and win? If not he’s toast! Things are closer than before in the RCP average:

Guiliani – 26.5%
Huckabee – 21.3%
Romney – 16.5%
McCain – 14.3%

There are some recent polls that are not included in the average that show Huck leading and Rudy tanking. Apparently RCP doesn’t trust them. Florida is unknown at this point. It is likely that there will be candidates out of the race by this point (Thompson…maybe Romney too). We’ll just have to wait and see.

The Last Minute Polls in Iowa Are Encouraging!

I still feel that Iowa is too close to call at this point but the last minute polls are encouraging!

Reuters-Zogby:

Mike – 31%
Mitt – 25%
Fred – 11%
John – 10%
RP – 10%

American Research Group:

Mike – 29%
Mitt – 25%
Fred – 13%
John – 11%
Rudy – 8%

These polling companies are not really that accurate but I still like these numbers. It all counts on turnout tonight however. THAT IS THE KEY!!

December 27th Roundup

Good morning!

We are now exactly a week away from Iowa. It’s all coming to a head now.

BTW It’s Freedom Lives Day. Have your made your contribution today? I am not sure how much money we will raise today. The site was flooded with bogus pledges for trolls trying to gum up the works. I’ve made my contribution today. Ever little bit helps!

After dipping in Rasmussen the numbers look more realistic today as Mike leads Rudy 20%-18% (with a three way statistical tie for 3rd place). John McCain is polling highest of those three today. That is no surprise as he is surging in Iowa, and New Hampshire presently. Good for him. Along with Mike John has run a very clean and honorable campaign. I just wish he supported the FairTax, and did not work hard for the Amnesty bill, and did not limit our first amendment right of political free speech with McCain Feingold. I might seriously consider voting for him if he did not have those things hanging over his head for me. I wish John McCain the best of luck. He definitely has my respect compared to Fred and Mitt who I have lost all respect for during this campaign.

As I said yesterday the AOL Straw poll is very interesting. For a time yesterday John McCain led in Wyoming but that didn’t last long. Ron Paul took over Utah for a short time as well but Mitt Romney has regained the lead there. As of this posting Mike Huckabee is winning Georgia and at times has led both Arkansas and Mississippi.

EDIT (1 PM EST) – The states I keep referencing keep going back and forth. Paul again leads Utah, Arkansas, and Georgia. Mississippi is still Huck’s

In other polls, Mike Huckabee now leads in Oklahoma!

There are some new Huckabee endorsements today. Florida state Senator (and Majority Whip), Mike Haridopolos, and former Wyoming Governor (he also served in the House and Senate), Jim Geringer. A few days ago Mike received the endorsement of the Dallas Morning News.

There will be two bloggers calls in the next five days or so. The first one is tomorrow afternoon while Mike travels the trail in Iowa. The 2nd one is really special on New Year’s Day afternoon during the Bloggers Bash the campaign is throwing at the campaign office in Des Moines. While meant for bloggers who are in Iowa or traveling there, there will be a call for those of us who cannot travel up to The Hawkeye State for the Caucus-week push. Chuck Norris will be on the call. I can’t wait! I’ll be all over both calls.

Check out One Mom’s blog. Kerry does an awesome job! Today she has a post documenting Mitt Romney’s panic attack mode he has gone into this past month as he has seen his lead in Iowa disappear and his lead in New Hampshire shrink down to nothing. The other thing I want to point out is not only is Mitt in attack mode but the Conservative elite “Chattering Class” is also in on it as well. I am really starting to get frustrated with a lot of folks who I admired, listened to, and bought books from. I’ve had a bout enough of these Bozos. For people who literally worship at the altar of Ronald Regan they are doing quite a good job at violating…no down right defecating upon Regan’s “11th Ammendment”, Thou Shalt Not Attack A Fellow Republican. Way to go folks! Regan is turning in his grave! OUTRAGEOUS!!

Iowa Caucus Night is 8 Days Away And the Race Is Getting Closer

THE RACE IN IOWA IS NOT OVER FOLKS!!!

Sorry for shouting but I wanted to get this important point across in an assertive manner. We are 8 days away from the Caucuses in Iowa. This is how everything stands according to ARG in the Hawkeye State. My comments will follow:

Mike Huckabee 23%
Mitt Romney 22%
John McCain 17%
Rudy Guiliani 14%
Ron Paul 10%
Undecided 8%
Fred Thompson 3%
Duncan Hunter 2%
Alan Keyes 2%

There are lots of things to talk about here. So here we go:

1. This is the first poll taken without including Tom Tancredo who dropped out last week. Just as Brownback endorsed McCain while his support went to Mike Huckabee, Tancredo endorsed Mitt Romney while his support seems to have gone to Ron Paul. This is big. Congratulations to the Ron Paul supporters reading. this is the first legit state poll that shows the Texas Rep in double-digits. Don’t underestimate Ron Paul, folks. He’s there lurking in the shadows with a rabid base of supporters and tons of money.

2. Here come McCain coming in on the rail! There is now a three-horse race at the top in Iowa. As he has in New Hampshire, McCain is now climbing in Iowa. John McCain might very well become the story if he continues to rise quickly. At this point he is rising faster than Huckabee did in the past two months.

3. As I have said before the race is not over in Iowa. It is time to redouble our efforts in Iowa, Huck’s Army! WE MUST WIN IOWA!! We must do all that we can to get Mike the win he needs. Even prayer helps.

8 days may seem like a lot of time but it isn’t. January 3rd, 2008 will be here before we know it. I don’t know if I will have any fingernails or hair left by that point. It’s sure is going to be exciting. So strap in folks. It’s going to be a wild ride! Win or lose I wouldn’t miss this for the world!

No More Posts until After Christmas

We are now upon the long Christmas weekend. There is lots going on with the campaign but honestly it is time for me to take a pause. There are tons of polls but they are inaccurate and all over the place. I don’t think it is possible to get a good enough sample the reflects what is really going on at this time of year. Everyone is so busy they are scraping the bottom of the barrel with their sample sizes. Knowing the demographics of Huckabee’s supporters there is no surprise that even the Rasmussen daily tracker is showing Huckabee falling. I’m not the only one supporting Huckabee that is taking a break for politics to celebrate Christmas. But I also feel that the case is the same for supporters of all candidates.

Merry Christmas one and all! Here’s a great cartoon for y’all to enjoy while I am gone.