POLLS – Huck leads GA, OK, MO, TN, & Tied With McCain in AL

with Super Tuesday looming right after Florida Mike Huckabee sees a key to success in the many Southern States that have their primaries that day. So how do we stand?

Georgia (Rasmussen):

Mike Huckabee – 34%
John McCain – 19%
Mitt Romney – 16%
Ron Paul – 12%
Rudy Giuliani – 11%

(Note the importance of this trend. The panhandle and the Northern part of Florida are said to be more politically aligned with Georgia. If this kind of margin can be met (or even larger) in those areas on Tuesday night we might have a great shot at a good showing in Florida which would strengthen our position elsewhere in the South)

Alabama (Rasmussen):

Mike Huckabee – 27%
John McCain – 27%
Mitt Romney – 15%
Rudy Giuliani – 8%
Ron Paul – 3%

Oklahoma:

Mike Huckabee – 30%
John McCain – 25%
Mitt Romney – 13%

Missouri (Rasmussen):

Mike Huckabee – 27%
John McCain – 26%
Mitt Romney – 18%
Rudy Giuliani – 7%
Ron Paul – 5%

Tennessee (Taken before Fred Dropped Out)
:

Fred Thompson – 25%
Mike Huckabee – 24%
John McCain – 12%
Mitt Romney – 7%
Rudy Giuliani/Ron Paul – 2%

Also voting on Super Tuesday in the south is Arkansas and West Virginia (convention where Mike will speak). Those are 7 states that Mike really needs to win and that we should focus on. There are a ton of delegates at stake in these. Also following that is Louisiana on Feb. 9th. In what may be a three-man race by that point sweeping the South will be important and would leave Mike in very good shape for Texas on March 4th which might be for all the marbles.

The Tide Is Turning In South Carolina!!

For the past week or so almost every poll has shown John McCain with a lead over Mike Huckabee and the rest of the field in South Carolina. This was of course after his showing in New Hampshire. The polls that have been released after Michigan (but with polls done before that point) also have shown Senator McCain leading in South Carolina. We now have the first poll taken in South Carolina after Michigan and we have a dead heat!

Rasmussen SC GOP Primary
:

John McCain – 24% (-4)
Mike Huckabee – 24% (+5)
Mitt Romney – 18% (+1)
Fred Thompson – 16%
Ron Paul – 5%
Rudy Giuliani – 3% (-2)

There are also two other major developments in the state today. Mitt Romney (despite his win in Michigan) has pulled out, according to National Review Online. He is headed out to Nevada and then to Florida on Saturday night. The other major development is the Huckabee endorsement by SC’s Lt. Governor Bauer. This is huge! He is popular in SC, especially with the older folks. That might eat into McCain’s support. There’s a new poll from MSNBC/McClatchy this afternoon in about an hour. Let’s see where we stand there too.

Mike Huckabee Back On Top In Daily GOP Tracking Poll!

My oh my this has been a topsy-turvey cycle. For a little while Mike Huckabee had run at the top of the field according to the Rasmussen Daily GOP Tracking Poll. After he had displaced Rudy, there was a dead-heat after the New Year. After McCain won New Hampshire he soared to the top. As Michigan approached McCain fell back down and now after Michigan Mike Huckabee has reassumed the top spot.

Today’s tracking poll
finds Mike Huckabee at 23%, John McCain at 20% Michigan winner, Mitt Romney is at 18% (and climbing), Fred Thompson sits at 12%, and Rudy is down at 11%.

I expect to see some changes in this tracking poll between now and South Carolina on Saturday. McCain’s momentum is now halted, and Romney is getting his Michigan bump. Let’s see if it continues tomorrow. What is very clear is that Huckabee’s support is more stead and strong. while everyone goes up and down the merry-go-round based on momentum.

Fasten your seat belts gang. We’ve still got a long ways to go!

NEW POLLS – Huck leads in Alabama & Georgia!!

New polls are out in Alabama and Georgia today and Mike Huckabee leads both of them!

Alabama GOP (Capitol Survey Research):

Mike Huckabee – 32%
John McCain – 25%
Fred Thompson – 10%

Georgia GOP (Mason Dixon):

Mike Huckabee – 31%
John McCain – 18%
Mitt Romney – 14%

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If This Califonria Poll Is Accurate, Rudy Is Toast!

Go over HERE to check out the latest California Poll. Remember this is one of the states Rudy is counting on on February 5th to give him a ton of delegates. Keep in mind it is a private poll and may not be accurate. If Rudy has fallen that low in California than he is toast and has no shot at the nomination.

Oh who leads? John McCain leads with 18% and Huck is not far behind, with 15%

POLLS – Where does GOP Stand in MI, NV, SC, & FL

Okay so now that we have New Hampshire out of the way it is time to look forward at where we stand in the next four contests

First up is Michigan. There have been no new polls here in the past three weeks-a month. So let’s use the RCP average:

Romney – 19.8%
Huckabee – 18.8%
McCain – 13.0%
Guliani – 12.5%

EDIT – New poll just released by Rossman out of Michigan HUCK LEADS!!

Huckabee – 23%
Romney – 22%
McCain – 18%

As New Hampshire had the Independents Michigan has the Dems. Only Hillary is on the ballot and there is a movement by Obama supporters to cross over and vote for Huckabee. Very interesting!

In Nevada no new polls have come out in a month So we will also use the RCP average:

Guiliani – 23.7%
Romney – 23.7%
Huckabee 15.3%

By the time the last polls were taken Huckaboom was beginning and his rise was dramatic. The very low polling from before November hurts his average. I expect to see higher numbers from Huck and McCain as well with new poll numbers.

Things are even more rosy for Huck in The Palmetto State. Three recent polls have come out in the last few days and Huck enjoys a big lead in the RCP average!

Huckabee – 32.3%
McCain – 19.7%
Romney – 16.0%

Florida is quite key and will be shaped by the three states voting before it does on the 29th of January. Florida is supposedly Rudy’s stronghold but his numbers in Florida and nationally are taking a nosedive. Will he be able to right the ship and win? If not he’s toast! Things are closer than before in the RCP average:

Guiliani – 26.5%
Huckabee – 21.3%
Romney – 16.5%
McCain – 14.3%

There are some recent polls that are not included in the average that show Huck leading and Rudy tanking. Apparently RCP doesn’t trust them. Florida is unknown at this point. It is likely that there will be candidates out of the race by this point (Thompson…maybe Romney too). We’ll just have to wait and see.

The Last Minute Polls in Iowa Are Encouraging!

I still feel that Iowa is too close to call at this point but the last minute polls are encouraging!

Reuters-Zogby:

Mike – 31%
Mitt – 25%
Fred – 11%
John – 10%
RP – 10%

American Research Group
:

Mike – 29%
Mitt – 25%
Fred – 13%
John – 11%
Rudy – 8%

These polling companies are not really that accurate but I still like these numbers. It all counts on turnout tonight however. THAT IS THE KEY!!

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