Even now with three-four weeks before Super Tuesday things are still quite fluid. Right now it appears that it is a three horse race in the GOP. All three (Huck, McCain, Romney) have won a state thus far. So what’s next? Michigan votes on Tuesday. Any of these three candidates can win. Who needs the win more? It’s very hard to say at this point. Romney needs a win in the worst way and this is his best shot to get one since he was born in MI and his father was governor years ago. John McCain has the momentum but it is very fresh. McCain only started gaining steam around Christmas but after NH his Mo can be seen nationally and in state polling as well. A win for him would cement the momentum going into South Carolina (where his best chance of winning something was before his surge) and Nevada. A 2nd (or especially 3rd) might bring his surge to a halt. Mike Huckabee has had relatively slowly building momentum for two-three months now and a win might seal the deal, especially since a win in Michigan would be a surprise to everyone considering the polls have Mike at 3rd presently. South Carolina is next and Mike Huckabee is very strong in the Palmetto State. Following a win in Michigan the former Governor might be unstoppable (the dominoes would start falling towards Feb 5th).
What about Nevada? Since the Democratic contest is more key over there and that the pollsters are gun shy after Obama’s surprise defeat there will be almost no polling at all of Nevada. The winner might be the one with the most momentum following Michigan. the only idea you can get on Nevada is the AOL straw poll which Mike Huckabee leads in considerably. It’s a caucus so who knows what will happen.
Mitt Romney needs a win in Michigan to stay alive. Mike Huckabee, and to a slightly lesser extent, John McCain might seal the deal with a win in Michigan.